In the electricity market, forecasts regarding the amount of electrical energy, peak power demand and the number of subscribers are made for the future with different scenarios for a certain period of time by distribution and assigned supply companies. The procedures and principles for making these estimates are regulated in the Electricity Market Demand Forecasting Regulation.
Distribution company performs or makes someone to perform demand forecasting for its own region by using scientifically and technically proven methods by taking into account peculiarities of concerned distribution region and by considering published official macroeconomic targets, and if deemed necessary by asking the opinions of relevant authorities and institutions. Making demand forecasting made by other real or legal persons does not remove the liability of companies.
Demand forecasts are prepared annually for the next ten years for distribution companies and the first year for the next five-year period for assigned supplier companies, and the forecast results are submitted to EMRA in three forms as low, base and high scenario. Only the base scenario is taken into account in the generation capacity projection and transmission system development report by TEİAŞ and the investment plan by the distribution company.
While making demand forecasting, the principles of consistency of the ed demand forecasting model with electricity demand behavior, using scientifically and economically meaningful explanatory variables, and high explanatory power of the coefficients are adopted.
After the demand forecasting model is created, tests are made to see if the model is scientifically and economically significant. If deemed necessary, changes and corrections can be made according to these test results.
Demand forecast results are made into a report. The first year of the demand forecast is submitted to EMRA within the scope of the provisions of the Energy Market Notification Regulation until the end of June of each year for distribution companies, and until the end of December of each year for the assigned supplier companies. In addition, distribution companies submit 1-year demand forecasts for the year following the current year to EMRA in the format notified to them by EMRA on the basis of connection type, consumer group and similar details. The demand forecast report prepared by the distribution company is examined in terms of compliance with the procedures and principles and if deemed appropriate by EMRA, it is sent to TEIAS by the distribution company within 10 days following the notification made. In general, if the prepared reports are not approved by EMRA, correction is requested within the scope of the Energy Market Notification Regulation. The company submits the new report to EMRA within 15 days following the notification. EMRA can make demand estimates ex officio if necessary.
TEİAŞ combines the demand forecasts of consumers directly connected to the transmission system with the forecast results from distribution companies.
As a result of the approval of the forecasts reports sent by EMRA, the demand estimates are published on the website of TEIAS on the basis of distribution regions and in consolidated tables. Demand forecasts are published by 31 December each year.
If the demand forecasts are not made in accordance with the procedures and principles, EMRA decides to impose an administrative fine or cancel the license.